ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 72 percentVARY 82 percent
MARKET 72%+10ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?335 LIVE MARKETS
SEE THE GAP.
The market has a probability.
VARY has another.
FEATURED · ELECTIONS · 3h LEFTWill the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?MARKET72%VARY82%YESGAP+10PTSNOYES
Market 72 percentVARY 82 percent
MARKET 72%VARY 82%
TRENDING TOPICS
BROWSE ALL →FEATURED · 16 CALLS
TODAY'S CALLS
82%
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 24 percentVARY 14 percent
MARKET 76%+10ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 64 percentVARY 73 percent
MARKET 64%+9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 30 percentVARY 21 percent
MARKET 70%+9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 88 percentVARY 97 percent
MARKET 88%+9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
ECONOMY
46h LEFT
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 43 percentVARY 52 percent
MARKET 43%+9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 67 percentVARY 58 percent
MARKET 67%−9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY YES?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 28 percentVARY 37 percent
MARKET 72%−9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
WHY NO?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 38 percentVARY 29 percent
MARKET 62%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY NO?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 70 percentVARY 79 percent
MARKET 70%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 19 percentVARY 10 percent
MARKET 81%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY NO?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 51 percentVARY 60 percent
MARKET 51%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?
VARY CALL
NOMarket 28 percentVARY 19 percent
MARKET 72%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY NO?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 67 percentVARY 76 percent
MARKET 67%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 72 percentVARY 81 percent
MARKET 72%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?
ELECTIONS
3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?
VARY CALL
YESMarket 65 percentVARY 74 percent
MARKET 65%+9ptsLOWLOW confidence
WHY YES?ALL MARKETS
Our call, the market price, and the gap between them.
335 MARKETS
GEOPOLITICS58d LEFT
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
VARYNO82%
MARKET81%AGREEMENT
Market 19 percentVARY 18 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $281K
We read this 0.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)1.1
- Volume Concentration-3
POLITICS58d LEFT
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $134K
We read this 1 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)0.1
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
- Volume Concentration-3
POLITICS58d LEFT
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $40K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)0.1
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.2
- Volume Concentration-3
GEOPOLITICS58d LEFT
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
VARYNO96%
MARKET95%AGREEMENT
Market 5 percentVARY 4 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $219K
We read this 1.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (7d)-1.1
- Volume Concentration-2.9
GEOPOLITICS58d LEFT
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $111K
We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)0.1
- Market Momentum (24h)0.2
- Market Momentum (7d)0.1
CRYPTO58d LEFT
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $71K
We read this 1.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-1.5
- Market Momentum (24h)0.2
- Market Momentum (7d)-1
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
VARYYES97%
MARKET92%+5
Market 92 percentVARY 97 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $4.6M
We read this 8.1 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)6
- Market Momentum (24h)10
- Market Momentum (7d)10
ELECTIONS735d LEFT
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $182
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Volume Concentration-3
ECONOMY58d LEFT
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
VARYNO90%
MARKET89%AGREEMENT
Market 11 percentVARY 10 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $256K
We read this 1.3 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.5
- Volume Concentration-2.8
GEOPOLITICS58d LEFT
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $39K
We read this 1.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)0.2
- Market Momentum (24h)0.1
- Market Momentum (7d)-1.2
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
VARYNO97%
MARKET90%+7
Market 10 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $2.6M
We read this 7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-3
- Market Momentum (24h)-10
- Market Momentum (7d)-10
ELECTIONS58d LEFT
Trump out as President before 2027?
VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $170K
We read this 1.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-1.1
- Market Momentum (24h)0.1
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.7
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
VARYNO90%
MARKET84%+6
Market 16 percentVARY 10 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $2.0M
We read this 6.2 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-1
- Market Momentum (24h)-10
- Market Momentum (7d)-9.1
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
VARYYES94%
MARKET86%+8
Market 86 percentVARY 94 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $2.8M
We read this 7.6 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)4
- Market Momentum (24h)10
- Market Momentum (7d)9.9
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
VARYNO97%
MARKET92%+5
Market 8 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $1.8M
We read this 8.6 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-8
- Market Momentum (24h)-10
- Market Momentum (7d)-10
ELECTIONS735d LEFT
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $48K
We read this 0.7 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)0.1
- Market Momentum (24h)0.3
- Market Momentum (7d)0.3
ECONOMY58d LEFT
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
VARYYES96%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 97 percentVARY 96 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $32K
We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-0.2
- Market Momentum (24h)-0.1
- Market Momentum (7d)0.5
CRYPTO58d LEFT
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET96%AGREEMENT
Market 4 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $9K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)0.1
- Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
VARYYES97%
MARKET90%+7
Market 90 percentVARY 97 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $1.5M
We read this 8.4 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)8
- Market Momentum (24h)10
- Market Momentum (7d)10
ELECTIONS735d LEFT
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
VARYNO97%
MARKET98%AGREEMENT
Market 2 percentVARY 3 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $16K
We read this 0.9 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)-0.2
- Market Momentum (7d)0.2
- Volume Concentration-3
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
VARYYES97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 97 percentVARY 97 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $2.1M
We read this 10.6 points higher than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)10
- Market Momentum (24h)10
- Market Momentum (7d)10
ELECTIONS3h LEFT
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
VARYNO96%
MARKET88%+8
Market 12 percentVARY 4 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $857K
We read this 8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (1h)-6
- Market Momentum (24h)-10
- Market Momentum (7d)-10
GEOPOLITICS58d LEFT
Iran leadership change by December 31?
VARYNO88%
MARKET87%AGREEMENT
Market 13 percentVARY 12 percent
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence24H $40K
We read this 1.4 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)-1.1
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.8
- Volume Concentration-2.9
CRYPTO58d LEFT
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
VARYNO97%
MARKET97%AGREEMENT
Market 3 percentVARY 3 percent
LOWLOW confidence24H $63K
We read this 0.8 points lower than the market, based on market structure.
- Market Momentum (24h)0.3
- Market Momentum (7d)-0.1
- Volume Concentration-2.9
SHOWING 24 OF 335
RECENTLY RESOLVED
Calls we made before the outcome was known, scored after it was.
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. San Diego PadresCALLED YES 50%
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas RangersCALLED NO 54%
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxCALLED NO 51%
MISSWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCALLED YES 50%
MARKET PULSE
Live spot prices behind the crypto markets above.
LAST GOOD DATAUPDATED 12:59 AMLIVE PRICES ARE UNAVAILABLE RIGHT NOW.
Live crypto data temporarily unavailable.
LAST SUCCESSFUL UPDATE: 12:59 AM
HOW VARY WORKS
We start from the market price, apply a bounded adjustment from our own signals, then show both numbers side by side. Every call is timestamped.
- 01
READ THE MARKET
Live odds from the market itself.
- 02
ADD OUR SIGNALS
Structure, momentum and live spot data.
- 03
BOUND THE MOVE
The adjustment can never run away.
- 04
RECORD IT
Every call is stored with a timestamp.
LIVE MARKET DATA · VARY EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATES