SEE THE GAP.
Independent probability intelligence for prediction markets.
Compare what the market believes with an independent probability estimate.
FEATUREDLIVECRYPTOENDS IN 18h
BITCOIN
UP OR DOWN TOMORROW?
OUR PROBABILITY
71%YES
- MARKET
- 62%
- DIFFERENCE
- +9pts
- CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
NOYES
MARKET 62 percentOURS 71 percent
MARKET 62%OURS 71%
Momentum and volume currently favor YES, while elevated volatility limits confidence.
SEE WHYTRENDING NOW
Where our estimate and the market currently disagree.
Bitcoin Up Tomorrow?
CRYPTO · VOL $4.82M
OUR PROB.
71%YES
MARKET
62%
DIFFERENCE
+9ptsCONFIDENCE
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidenceENDS
18h
18h
Bitcoin Up Tomorrow?
71%YES
OUR PROBABILITY
MARKET 62%+9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
Momentum and volume currently favor YES, while elevated volatility limits confidence.
SEE WHYEthereum Above $4,500 This Week?
CRYPTO · VOL $2.14M
OUR PROB.
58%YES
MARKET
65%
DIFFERENCE
−7ptsCONFIDENCE
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidenceENDS
5d
5d
Ethereum Above $4,500 This Week?
58%YES
OUR PROBABILITY
MARKET 65%−7ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
The market is pricing a cleaner path to $4,500 than realized volatility supports.
SEE WHYSOL Up Today?
CRYPTO · VOL $1.76M
OUR PROB.
68%YES
MARKET
53%
DIFFERENCE
+15ptsCONFIDENCE
HIGHHIGH confidenceENDS
5h
5h
SOL Up Today?
68%YES
OUR PROBABILITY
MARKET 53%+15ptsHIGHHIGH confidence
A one-directional intraday trend that the market has not repriced.
SEE WHYBTC Above $120K This Month?
CRYPTO · VOL $6.31M
OUR PROB.
63%YES
MARKET
54%
DIFFERENCE
+9ptsCONFIDENCE
MEDIUMMEDIUM confidenceENDS
25d
25d
BTC Above $120K This Month?
63%YES
OUR PROBABILITY
MARKET 54%+9ptsMEDIUMMEDIUM confidence
The required move sits inside a normal monthly range from here.
SEE WHYPROBABILITY, NOT PROPHECY.